The School-to-Prison Pipeline Is Real: Why We Must Act Before Young People Reach Crisis
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A prison visit can bring the past sharply into focus. It can also raise a difficult question: what might have changed if someone had listened earlier, kept a young person connected to education and helped them see a route towards a different future?
Sam Smith, Founder and Co-Director of Genuine Futures, knows what it means to move through systems that did not change his direction. He experienced school exclusion, secure units and prison as a young person. Today, through Genuine Futures, he works alongside young people facing barriers to education, employment and belonging.
“I know what it feels like to be written off when you are still a child. I was excluded from school and went through secure units and prison. Looking back, I can see the opportunities and support that were missing. I want young people today to have someone beside them before crisis becomes the only thing people see.”
— Sam Smith, Founder and Co-Director, Genuine Futures
The aim of this work is not to claim that every excluded pupil or care-experienced young person will become involved in crime. They will not. Nor is there one simple explanation for offending. But there is a pattern many young people, families and practitioners recognise: a child’s needs are not addressed early; education breaks down; relationships with support services become strained; and the young person’s options begin to narrow.
The school-to-prison pipeline is real in the lived experiences of young people who move from exclusion and unmet need into youth justice, secure settings and custody. That pathway is not inevitable. Prevention has to begin before a young person reaches the point where their choices are being shaped by the justice system.
The scale of the challenge
In England, 81,770 children were looked after by local authorities on 31 March 2025. Among care leavers aged 19 to 21, 40% were recorded as not in education, employment or training (NEET), compared with an estimated 15% of all young people of the same age. These figures show a serious gap in outcomes, although they cannot explain every young person’s individual circumstances.
The Department for Education estimated that 839,900 young people aged 16 to 24 in England were NEET between October and December 2025—13.3%, or more than one in eight. The same release estimated that 56,800 young people aged 16 and 17 were NEET. Behind every statistic is a person who may be trying to manage difficult circumstances while searching for a route forward.
School exclusion and suspension form part of this wider picture. In England during the 2024–25 school year, there were 913,000 suspensions and 9,900 permanent exclusions. Both totals fell from the previous year, but the figures still show how many pupils are being removed from classrooms. Exclusion can sometimes be necessary to protect pupils and staff. It should also prompt a careful question: what support, assessment or suitable alternative does this child need next?
The latest youth justice statistics add further context. In England and Wales in 2024–25, 44% of children in custody were on remand and 63% were held in young offender institutions. These figures describe children who have reached custody; they do not establish a direct causal link between exclusion, care and offending. They do underline why early support and access to education matter.
From school exclusion to youth justice
For some young people, the route towards the justice system begins with a growing distance from school. A pupil may be struggling with trauma, unmet special educational needs, instability at home or in care, mental health needs, bullying or other pressures. If those needs are seen only as poor behaviour, the response may fail to address what is happening.
Repeated suspensions or permanent exclusion can disrupt learning and relationships. If there is no timely, suitable education and no trusted adult keeping in contact, a young person may become increasingly disconnected from school and the support around them. That isolation can leave space for exploitation, harmful influences or offending. These outcomes are not automatic, but risks can build when practical support is missing.
For a child in care, those pressures may overlap with placement changes, separation from family, disrupted friendships or uncertainty about where they will live next. Care is intended to protect and support children. Yet the outcomes for some care leavers—particularly the proportion recorded as NEET—show that systems do not always provide the continuity and opportunity young people need.
Some young people may then encounter youth justice. Depending on their circumstances and decisions made by courts and relevant services, they may be supported in the community, placed in a secure children’s home or held in youth custody. These settings are distinct: a secure children’s home and a young offender institution are not the same thing, and there is no single route that every young person follows.
For those who later enter adult prison, the consequences reach beyond the prison gate. Education, health, housing, family relationships and future employment can all be affected. The pathway from school exclusion to adult prison is not inevitable or a fixed sequence. It is a warning about what can happen when a young person’s needs are repeatedly missed and their contact with support comes mainly through crisis systems.
Listening inside children’s homes and secure settings
Genuine Futures has recently visited children’s homes and Barton Moss Secure Unit. These visits are part of a commitment to meet young people where they are, listen to what they want for their lives and explore practical ways to help them take a next step.
The visit to Barton Moss was especially personal for Sam. He has also visited HMYOI Hindley, following two visits to HMYOI Werrington House. Entering these settings is not abstract for him: he remembers being a young person in secure units himself.
“When I walk into a secure setting, I remember being that young person who needed somebody to believe there was more to life than the system I was in. Visiting young people now reminds me why prevention matters. They deserve to be listened to, encouraged and connected to real opportunities before they lose hope in themselves.”
— Sam Smith, Founder and Co-Director, Genuine Futures
A visit alone cannot solve the pressures facing a young person or the services supporting them. What matters is whether listening leads to a relationship, a plan and an opportunity that continues after the meeting. That may mean a trusted mentor, help to reconnect with education, work experience, enterprise, creative activity or a supported introduction to an employer.
Mike Alleyne, Co-Director of Genuine Futures and the organisation’s Designated Safeguarding Lead, brings a focus on consistent relationships, safety and strengths-based support.
“A young person’s behaviour is only part of the story. We need to listen carefully, understand what is getting in the way and help them see what they can do next. A genuine opportunity, backed by people who keep showing up, can make a real difference.”
— Mike Alleyne, Co-Director, Genuine Futures
Overcrowded prisons show why prevention matters
The prison system is under pressure too. Ministry of Justice figures show that 24% of prisoners across England and Wales were held in crowded conditions during the 12 months to March 2026. HM Inspectorate of Prisons has warned that overcrowding continues to affect many jails, with prisoners spending too much time in cells instead of taking part in education and work.
This is not to suggest that youth support alone can resolve prison overcrowding, or that every person in prison could have been kept out of the justice system. It is to say that a system focused mainly on responding after harm has occurred is not enough. If we want fewer people drawn into crime and fewer lives shaped by custody, we need to invest in choices and support earlier.
Preventing offending means keeping young people connected to learning, safe relationships, meaningful activity and work. It also means providing alternatives that respond to need while taking safety and accountability seriously.
Rolling out the Bolton NEET Taskforce
That is why Genuine Futures is rolling out the Bolton NEET Taskforce. Its starting point is simple: listen to young people, bring the right people together and turn what they say into practical action.
The Taskforce will focus on barriers that can push young people away from education, employment and training. These include school exclusion, gaps in support for children in care and care leavers, poor access to opportunities, mental health needs, unstable relationships with services and a lack of trusted routes into work.
It will connect young people and their voices with schools, alternative provision, local authorities, youth justice, employers, community organisations and other partners. The goal is to build a more joined-up response around young people and make sure their ideas help shape it.
Mike believes that joined-up working must make the next steps clearer for young people:
“Too often, support is offered in separate pieces, and the young person is left to join them together. We need to work with them, not around them, so education, care, youth justice and employers can create one clear route forward.”
— Mike Alleyne, Co-Director, Genuine Futures
Genuine Futures’ practical work includes Boss Your Future, a 12-week programme for young people aged 15 to 24, and youth-led enterprises such as We Shine Any Car and Clean Futures. These offer ways to build skills, confidence, work experience and connections through real activity. They do not replace statutory support, specialist education or safeguarding. They can be part of a wider network of opportunity when partners work together.
The Taskforce will be strongest if young people are involved as partners: setting priorities, challenging assumptions and helping services understand what support feels like from their side of the table. “It starts with listening” has to mean more than asking for a view. It means showing young people what changed because they spoke up.
Saving young lives from a life of crime
Saving young lives from a life of crime means acting before crisis becomes the main point of contact. It means treating exclusion as a moment to understand what is happening, not simply the end of a conversation. It means giving children in care continuity, connection and routes into education, training and work. It means making sure a visit to a children’s home or secure unit can lead to a relationship and a real next step.
The school-to-prison pipeline is not an unavoidable outcome for young people who struggle at school, live in care or become involved with youth justice. But it is real for those who experience the cumulative effects of missed support and closed doors. We should be honest about that risk while holding onto the possibility of change.
Every young person deserves to be seen for more than the hardest thing they have done or the label someone has placed on them. With trusted relationships, timely support and meaningful opportunity, young people can shape futures that are about more than survival.
Help create a route to opportunity
Businesses, schools, colleges and community organisations: get involved in the Bolton NEET Taskforce. Bring your experience, help shape practical solutions and open doors for young people through mentoring, work experience, referrals, training or employment.
You can also support young people by using a Genuine Futures service. Book We Shine Any Car or Clean Futures and help create real-world opportunities for young people to build skills and experience. Or simply have your car washed and choose to pay it forward, helping another person access the service.
Every conversation, partnership and opportunity can help a young person take their next step. Join us in bridging the gap to hope and opportunity.
Visit genuinefutures.co.uk to get involved or find out more.